Today's Top Horses
It Really Is That Easy! Here Is The Catch! Keep Reading To Learn More! The Answer Is Easy. So Far So Good. It Is Just That Simple. The truth is simple and straight forward.
The truth is undeniable. The truth is if you are reading this then you are almost certainly a loser over the long haul betting horses. I was too and I found it very frustrating because I was so close. My biggest disappoinment was that I actually knew why I was losing betting horses and it had nothing to do with picking winners. The real answer is called mathematical expectation which is a gambling formula that predicts the long term outcome for the bet being considered.
The TRUTH is ugly because you cannot escape the mathematics of gambling no matter what you do or how good you think you are at picking winning horses. ONLY making value bets will lead horse racing bettors to become long term, consistent winners. Here is the answer without getting too mathematical.
There are four components of mathematical expectation. Applying the components to a win bet in horse racing the components are: The actual chances the horse will win, how much profit the horse racing bettor will make if the horse wins, the actual chances the horse will lose, and how much money the horse racing bettor will lose if the horse loses.
Here It Is In English. Horse racing betting is a pari mutuel system. Use of a pari mutuel system means there is a win pool of all the bets made by the public. The track takes its cut and returns the balance to the winning horse racing bettors. The key point is the public sets the payoffs for each horse in the race by the process of placing their bets. When the puiblic makes a mistake there is a market inefficiency.
Accuracy Is The Critical Key! It Really Is That Simple! It is simply amazing we were all told we will make our money on race 12! The Preakness was race But, then we went over the E ratings and it was explained how some races are paceless.
Then we were told the most likely winners were 2 and 5. We were told the most likely scenario for the race was one of the deep closers would pass the early leaders in the stretch. Since 2 had a good key factor 1 rank and 11 E rating that is who I focused on. I bet 2 to win and I keyed 2 in the exactas over the few likely early leaders based on the E rating. At Finger Lakes I hit a in race 8. The secret ingredient is how we add the information in a way that allows us to adjust the probabilities for each runner relevant to what the information has told us.
We do this by using something known as likelihood ratios. Working out these ratios is very simple. We decide what information we are going to add, for example last time out winner, and take all the horses we have in our historic races and split them into two groups:. We then break each of these two groups down into two more groups where are:. This is all the information that we need to create our likelihood ratios. And if you can get this information and have a normal calculator to hand, then you can create probabilities for horses in a race without any difficulty.
Doing so is going to allow you to create odds lines and probabilities in the same way that big bettors and major teams do! Chosen which factors you want to use to create your probabilities and odds lines no more than four or five to start. If you would like to see me do a real sample next week with real data that you can put to use, then leave a comment below with you vote what factors you would like us to use.
I have worked with many of the best betting tipsters in the UK, professional punters and also big football syndicates. I think the algorithm or method you're looking for would be akin to the holy grail and to all intents and purpose I am sure it is as good as impossible to create. The reason is that you are talking about a dynamic activity involving human beings and horses where the key information will always be obscure at best and likely unknowable in advance of each race.
Is this the day that every runner is going to put its best foot forward? What runners and riders are in primed condition and what not? And of course, is today's race what it appears to be ie is the race straight or bent? In a game where everyone is trying to hide their intentions for personal gain and advantage data is not the issue.
What is the key component governing success is how that data form is interpreted by very experienced people with very, very good eyes and that indefinable X Factor in their method - something that understands the shades of grey as much as what's black and white.
That's people that understand the rules and the exceptions to the rules too because no two betting opportunities are ever exactly the same regardless of superficial similarities.
I have never seen a computer modelled system make anything other than short term gains before blowing up. The best people I've seen know what their watching, know how to interprete it and rely on being more right than wrong over the long term at odds that are greater than the real chance of their selections winning the concept called value betting. Mostly they rely on their eyes, their ears and the kind of hard-won experience that computers can't have.
But lets assume you could build this super-algorithm and it worked. Who would take your bets and in what sort of stakes and volume? Even if you could plan an orchestrated one day military precision blitz on the bookmakers with cash, or with new clean accounts they would simply cry foul and refuse to pay your winnings out.
And let's face it if your algorithm really was the holy grail it would like some sort of corruption was taking place on your part. I would suggest starting with just the basics. Most tracks now track each runner in real time with electronic trackers.
The two most significant aspects to take into account would be 1 total distance covered and 2 total finishing time. Once this information is compared the two most important factors to consider are: Career Best Performance and Recent Form. I have deliberately chosen to overlook the post position barrier stall as the total distance covered is a more appropriate gauge.
Not to imply that these are irrelevant but these will have to be taken into consideration subjectively on a race by race basis. I think the above will be a good starting point in devising an algorithm and covers most of the vital aspects. This page may be out of date. Save your draft before refreshing this page. Submit any pending changes before refreshing this page. Ask New Question Sign In.
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Can bayesian theory be applied to horse racing? Is there a horse racing betting system that works? What is a great strategy for horse race betting? What would be the good site to predict the winner of a horse race? Thank you for your feedback! Deep learning workstations and servers, customized and turnkey.
Selecting a deep learning GPU system shouldn't be a challenge, let us build the right system for you. Learn More at exxactcorp. Broadly, I like the Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization PMF plus side information approach that is discussed with respect to basketball here: The basic assumption of the model would be that there are unobserved characteristics of each horse and each track.
The results of a race come from interactions between these latent characteristics e.