Call to the Pen
Also, the wild card races are heating up! A slew of […]. Welcome to a special Players Weekend Edition of the R. For the second consecutive year, players will be wearing their nicknames on their backs. Want to win a […]. The race to the playoffs is beginning to heat up and players like Mike Leake and Harrison Bader are doing everything in their power to get their teams to the postseason. Although the trade deadline has come and gone, players are still on the move and we have you covered.
Welcome to the R. I 18 that best reflects the state of the game in Major League Baseball. Make sure to check back next week to see where other trade pieces end up. Summer is in full swing and the All-Star Game already feels like a distant memory, so what better time to launch our R. Where you need to keep a keen eye on the weather though is for rain.
Vegas can only do so much for us, but it cannot tell us whether or not a game will play because of bad weather. If a game does rain out and you have guys in your lineup that night from that game, you are out of luck. You will get a score of zero for those players and your lineup score for that night will suffer because of it. So be careful and give a thorough look through of the weather forecast for any slate that you are planning on playing in baseball.
After you look through what the sports books are saying for the baseball games and making sure that the weather looks good for all the games, then you are ready to start building some lineups. When it comes to selecting pitchers — never get too cute with it. This is the most crucial part because pitching is the most consistent source of points that you will get in DFS baseball. If you see that one of your pitchers has a negative score, your night is probably over, regardless of your bats.
Depending on the site that you play on, you might want to contemplate different sets of pitchers. Draftkings puts their pitcher emphasis on guys that can get strikeouts, and they are priced accordingly.
However, the extra price is worth paying up for, especially if we are talking about Clayton Kershaw. FanDuel, on the other hand, puts much power toward pitchers that can get the win. Of course, pitchers that can get the win are also important on Draftkings, and guys that can strike batters out are important on FanDuel.
However, these are just things to look for when you are playing on each site. As far as strikeouts, though, this is where the statistical fun begins.
Now that you have identified those pitchers that you like to get the win tonight, now it is time to see which of them can get the job done by striking guys out.
Teams such as the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros are prone to striking out a ton in a given game. So if conditions are right, I might just use a pitcher that is facing one of those teams. A fancy way of saying that this number is a more predictive metric than something like ERA. Avoid any pitcher that has an xFIP rating of four or more, as this is considered below average. You have picked the pitcher s that you want to use for the night, and now you want to pick your batters for the evening.
First, refer to Vegas, it will pretty much show you whom the high owned bats are going to be on a given night. For example, if the Red Sox and Yankees are playing with a ten run total set, then you can believe that a ton of people are going to flock to those players immediately, as they should. However, you might not want to go that route. Because being contrarian is essential in baseball.
Earlier, I said that on a day to day basis, baseball is the most variance driven and inconsistent of the four major DFS sports. So while the Vegas lines might suggest that this hypothetical Red Sox and Yankees game is going to be high scoring, they could be wrong.
This will happen far less often than not, but from time to time, Vegas can be wrong. Also, it is our job as the smart DFS baseball player to capitalize on it. From time to time, I can objectively tell that a game is being over or underrated by Vegas, but it is more of a gut things and an attempt to be contrarian. One being wOBA weighted on-base percentage. This is a cool stat that weights Home Runs more than a single. Something that regular stats, unfortunately, do not do.
I also like to look at ISO, which is somehow much-isolated power a player has shown. The best way to look at these metrics on a day to day basis is looking at their splits on a given day.