NFL Betting Picks 2018
For instance, tonight the Heat played the Celtics. My ratings say the Heat have a slightly higher total score. Now, the spread is Boston Therefore we will take the Heat and the points theoretically and we would win the bet as the Heat won by 8 tonight. This system is very simple, but it should work in the long run. Now, make sure that before you start putting money on your system, you run it for a few weeks or so and make sure it is profitable in the long run.
Sure you may have bad days, but overall you should be winning. The forecast function is very useful to forecast how accurate your next prediction should be. It also really helps to be knowledgeable in the basic use of Excel and formulas in Excel. You might want to read up on that. I know this guide is very simple, it is intended for those that are new to data analysis and data gathering.
I kept adding to the example NBA model, here it is with the area where my predictions are and outcomes: I agree these are very essential. I never used to want to use them but now I'm not looking back. Well, this should help you then. The real thing that is super useful is the automatic data pulling. Create a plain text file, and enter the URL generated into the body of text, followed by 2 spaces. Sorry this wasn't clearer - enter the url generated as the body of the txt file followed by 2 spaces, you can name the file what ever you want.
Also, my Text Edit was defaulted to saving as rich text file which didn't work when I went to use it as the query - you have to change the default format to plain text. I was able to get this to work on Mac Excel but I had to add the additional lines for formatting below:.
Where would you recommend someone looks to next to further develop an understanding of models and how to make them more advanced? I mean R is very useful, but shouldn't be necessary unless your sport has a TON of teams in it. I would also suggest you look into Matlab and maybe databases. With large data sets you're really getting into an area where coding is necessary. Statistics and Excel functionality. There are so many useful built in functions in Excel and having a basic understanding of what they do and how to use them is very useful.
Google is your friend. Math knowledge helps too. Coming up with a formula that wins is the most important part. You could also incorporate VBA coding and databasing into your spreadsheet, taking out the need for the raw data thrown over on the right side of your sheet. If you hit the export to excel button before you import it on your website it will create a table that includes team names. I literally made it last night as I typed this out.
It has only been run on the Heat and Lakers games last night record. A lot of what you said is what I already knew, but I wish I had this blueprint when I started to make a spreadsheet. Do you feel like there should be more factors added into the system rather than Oliver's four factors?
Do you account for HCA? You mentioned you account for fatigue. How I use this to account for fatigue and HCA. So personally I think it may be a myth. Do what works for you - you will need to experiment. What I did was run R-Square analysis on factors versus points, and I took the top results. Go read about R-square if you're not familiar with it. This is the most difficult part of my system.
Typically I won't bet on a team that lost it's all-star level player for 5 games or so. I do not factor in HCA at all.
Not saying that's correct; it's what has worked for me though. It helps find what variables correlate with each other. Now, there is some inherent problems with using it. One of the highest correlations with points is FGM. Well of course it does! But this is not useful as a predictor - the correlation is because the points results from made field goals. It really depends on your lines though. Yes, I would definitely add more factors to the formula, this was mostly a for instance and I made the spreadsheet as I was typing this up.
I am going to keep working on it and adding to it. The best way to account for injuries is to first off ask if they really matter that much.
For NBA, injuries are much more important to a team than say NFL because individual players have a much bigger impact. I would really just look at the teams your system says are a play and check for injuries on the team it picked.
Well, in all honesty, this is more of an approximation. With my adding factors into it, I wasn't specific enough. I should have said it like this: You know, the weights thing is really just adjust until you get a good predictive outcome, but the ones I used are the original ones proposed by the Four Factors creator.
I would actually probably throw in a Pythagorean ratio in there too. It is a concept initially developed for MLB to predict how many wins a team should have based on their points for and against. You might want to use different exponents though. Games where you can score more than one point at a time definitely need a different exponent for the ratio. I might use the total ratings from the four factors with the pythagorean to come to a total rating.
This is just me personally though, you can honestly just ask yourself what things affect a basketball game's outcome? You can make a formula based on what you deem important and weight the factors yourself. We kind of did 2 months ago or 2 XMAS ago. We do have tools in the wiki hwere that doesn't get a lot of attention. I swore I was going to stay out of this convo since I didn't want to take away from the post.
I think mines a bit different than those posts in that it's more geared toward data gathering, updating data, and general basics. I did use the Four Factors, but it was just to show that you need a basis for your picks and a solid formula. I would point to your post and say that is where people should go if they really want to go more in depth into formula breakdowns. Like I said, don't want to step on toes here as you did more visuals towards excel versus teh formula.
Any other website that has these stats, but not for the entire season, say for the last 10 games? There are a bunch, but some won't be able to have the table on them accessed by Excel.
For instance, the NBA website is much harder to pull data from in the way described in the OP because the data isn't pullable via the yellow arrow import method. Just google around until you find the data you want to get and then try importing it and see if you can. The formula assumes all bets at A trend is wins, losses, thus: Z-scores above 3 are rare, perhaps 1 in 5 or 10 thousand chance of being random.
The realistic scale is 0 to about 4 or 5. Last edited by ManBearPig; at No matter how complicated it is, or how advanced the math is and i've seen some insane shit , at the end of the day this is still sports. I dont care what kind of prediction algorithms you have this is still real life where anything can happen at any time and you can't predict anything.
You're betting on the human element not robots. I just found a cool stat for you. Spreads are off the end results by an average of 7 points. So when people run around the forums talking about how the lines are sharp i really think they dont have a clue of what they are actually saying.
You're really going against yourself by dedicating too much time to perfecting a model. Are you really hoping to discover something Vegas doesn't already know? And even if you do, and lets say your lines are better then Vegas lines you're still gonna lose plenty because the lines will never consistently reflect exactly how the game is played.
The best use of a model is just to have a starting point to compare lines. If your model gives you what you consider fair lines you can compare them with Vegas lines and have a better understanding of WHY the Vegas line is what it is which i think is a major key to success.
And you do, and LA wins by Because the shit is unpredictable. Because there is more to it then math, maybe LA just beat that opponent senseless all the time, Maybe the oppenents best player has a mistress in LA and is exhausted in all the games. There are a million outside factors that can make this mathematical quest useless. No matter what genius model you create, its still gonna be extremely rare you find mistakes in Vegas lines, and if you do it does not even mean that that game will go like you expect it to.
But if you are talking about creating something for an unpopular sport then you might have a chance. Then you do have a chance to have much more "accurate" lines then Vegas that should produce winners. But are you willing to do extensive research on a sport noone gives a shit about, even watch it sometimes. And probably develop your own databases and keep all the stats because they are not kept online for you like for NBA or NFL, etc?
Anyway, my 2 cents. Hey Demens did you get that NBA point spread stat from my thread? Average line is somewhere in the 3. The only math that I did to figure out the actual point spread was based on info that was given to me by someone else so it may or may not be accurate, but anyway I came up with 6.
Just to clarify a few things, the vegas point spreads of 3. They probably came up with Lakers by but need to adjust down to correct for the possibility that the Lakers may not win at all. The average game is decided by 6. The Cavaliers will beat the lakers by 6. So for every 2 times the lakers beat the cavs by 6. This is why the vegas lines are so much lower than the actual average margins. But by average whoever wins the game will win by a great deal more than the predicted point spread.
Even betting every single game long term. Obviously using math you will not be able to pin point human performance. But I think you can do pretty well. We are not trying to be exact. Last edited by widebody2; at Originally Posted by widebody2. So manbearpig this is obviously a topic that you are very interested and have put a lot of thought into. How long has he been doing it for?
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Derives a predictive rating for each team based on past game results and opponent strength, then creates predictions by comparing team ratings and adjusting for game location.