2018 NFL Super Bowl Futures: Odds for Each Team to Win
Now, it still believes that the Broncos ' defense is excellent No. Because Keenum is a quarterback, he is specifically factored into the Broncos' rating, but nonetheless the model sees Denver as having the worst offense in the NFL. In addition, the model is slightly less confident in quarterbacks like Keenum, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith this year because they switched teams in the offseason. Basic strength of schedule formulas based on wins and losses from the previous season really don't do the statistic justice.
The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation.
But their schedule is ranked only 25th in difficulty according to the FPI because they play teams like the Bills nine wins last year and the Cardinals eight , whom we expect to be much worse than their win totals a season ago. After a winless campaign, the FPI has labeled the Browns as the most likely team to earn the No.
Despite having Tyrod Taylor -- whom the model likes -- as their likely starter to begin the season, the Browns have a 14 percent chance to earn the top pick in the draft. For Browns fans looking for some hope, there's this: That's because there's quite a bit of uncertainty about quarterbacks who have never taken a snap in the NFL, but it also means that if Mayfield plays and plays effectively, that projection can change in a hurry.
Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen. In the FPI's opinion, the Jets would be best off with Teddy Bridgewater starting under center, though it doesn't explicitly consider Bridgewater's injury. At one point this offseason, a Tom Brady retirement seemed at least plausible. Had Brady actually hung it up, would the Patriots have been the Super Bowl favorites that they are today?
Would they still win the AFC East? We ran the model in a world where Brady called it quits, and not only were the Patriots no longer the best team in football In the scenario, New England still had a 55 percent chance to win its division -- it helps to have just about the most feeble competition possible -- but only a 3 percent shot to win the Super Bowl down from 18 percent in actuality.
And that got us thinking, with FPI able to move quarterbacks around, what other alternative realities could we imagine? For example, staying in the AFC East They'd be better, that's for sure.
But according to the FPI: Don't get us wrong: Even with Cousins wearing green and white, the Jets would still be the 30th-ranked team and would have only a 16 percent chance to reach the playoffs up from 10 percent.
What if we know Carson Wentz is healthy to start the season? Or in Week 5? We'll sum it up like this: The difference in the Eagles' chances to win, in the model's mind, between Wentz and Nick Foles is generally about 4 percentage points per game. After all, we've seen that Foles is a capable fill-in.
In Week 1, we give Philadelphia a 65 percent chance to beat Atlanta with Wentz under center and a 61 percent with Foles. But all those percentage points do add up: We would project over 10 wins with 16 games of Wentz, but 9. How much better are the Colts with Andrew Luck than without him? Bell is an unrestricted free agent; his future will greatly impact the Steelers' title hopes.
If the Packers can shore up their defense and have a semblance of a ground game, they'll be Super Bowl contenders. If not, they'll once again bow out in the playoffs. Perhaps targeting a running back in the NFL Draft is the answer. The Raiders went to earn a Wild Card last year. Their offense produced The Seahawks' Achilles heel all season was their home-away splits. They averaged 15 points on the road compared to 28 at home.
QB Russell Wilson is under contract through The Chiefs showed that special teams and defense can carry a team a long way. Kansas City is an offensive playmaker or two from being a serious Super Bowl contender. WR Tyreek Hill, though still a raw talent, showed considerable promise in his rookie year. View subscription options for NFL weekly picks. Plus pool picks straight up pick'em, and against the spread. View Super Bowl odds for all teams.
Naturally the odds of winning the Super Bowl for all teams can fluctuate throughout the season, so check back often for updated - Super Bowl futures, sorted by odds for each NFL team. The Patriot defense was unable to force a single punt. Brady showed once again that he's the greatest quarterback of them all regardless of what the PSI of the football may or may not be set to.
Previously the largest come back in Super Bowl history was 10 points.