That assessment is doubtless fuelled by opinion polls showing Clinton ahead by an average 6. The Republican race is at a turning point ahead of two significant primaries on Tuesday. The betting strongly suggests that, at odds of [1. In order for his bid to stay relevant, Cruz needs to close that gap or at least stop it widening, ahead of the final valuable round of primaries on June 7th.
His problem is that, after Tuesday, most of April will be spent battling for less favourable North-Eastern states, before some good opportunities in May.
John Kasich will find it hard to justify staying in the race if, as expected, he loses badly in both states. The Ohio Governor believes he can compete with Trump during April, but he is so far behind that the danger is appearing futile, and being accused of blocking Cruz's path. Nevertheless, after months of being mostly ignored, Kasich is enjoying getting his message across and highlighting polls showing him by far the strongest opponent for Clinton.
Without an imminent resetting of the race, the next task will be predicting whether or not Trump can win the delegates required to avoid a Contested Convention. That market is beginning to liven up, with both Yes and No exchanging favouritism so far.
As speculation about that complex scenario mounts, money is coming in for candidates who aren't even in the race. Plus in this scenario, delegates become unbound from their original choice, meaning literally anyone could be chosen.
That is precisely the route - albeit an unlikely one - that Kasich eyes towards the nomination, but there are other big names mooted. Most significantly Speaker Paul Ryan traded below [ The current delegate tally is Trump , Cruz , Kasich , with remaining. These numbers show precisely why Arizona matters so much. If Trump wins but loses Utah, he'll still just about be in range of , given good imminent opportunities elsewhere.
However if Cruz pulled off an upset and also won Utah as expected, he could close the gap to a manageable - June's final round of primaries alone yield delegates - that contested convention would be almost certain. Follow me on Twitter paulmotty and at my website Political Gambler.
For the latest on the US Election and all of our other politics markets, check out the new, improved Betfair Predicts , which forecasts outcomes based on the very latest Exchange data Rules on political wagering are more permissive overseas, with major players like Paddy Power and U. The overseas odds often mirror those of U. The betting markets predicted -- up to the day Britain voted -- an 80 percent likelihood U. The final presidential debate was in Las Vegas, so it should come as no surprise the event had British betting powerhouse William Hill as a co-sponsor.
The most unlikely utterances? The odds on PredictIt suggested TV viewership would be down yet to be seen from the first two debates and Trump would talk more than Clinton she wound up talking for 5 minutes more than him. A decade after the Great Recession, the U. The top-paying jobs tend to cluster in two industries -- and may prove less vulnerable automation. Share Tweet Reddit Flipboard Email.
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