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Alice Reed pniitinH posler oil clipboard door , ,. Estimated year stroke risk in year-old adults according to levels of various risk factors FHS. What could you recommend about your submit that you just made a few days ago? I'm very happy to look your article. Ward, on the other hand. Want to add to the discussion?

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In order to get bass lines, you had to cut a kick drum note into the first sine wave, loop it and what you would get is a long buzz. EQ filter the high end of this buzz and pitch it down 12 octaves, you had the authentic sound of golden era hip hop bass.

As computers started to enter the modern studio, these samplers were not seen as useful anymore. The limitations of them became a hindrance. Most sequencing starts and ends on the computer these days. Its not hard to replicate the vintage sonic sound anymore.

These factors I think are what led to the open space Mr. Sogi was referencing to. September 19, Leave a Comment. Two interesting developments this week in the competition for smart home ecosystem. Apple iOS 10 update which introduces the Home app. Amazon's echo "dots" for those who prefer their Alexa services with a lower profile and footprint than the obelisk Amazon Echo. Samsung SmartThings seems to be lagging but they are a bit distracted by the Galaxy Note 7. Perhaps released too early arguably applies to Apple and Google as well.

Despite being a gadget geek and early adopter, I have not yet set up automation in my home for two reasons:. Not yet comfortable with security practices by the providers as well as data privacy concerns they need to incentivize me to give such delicious consumer data away.

I have been dipping my feet into the smart home waters. I was an early Echo adopter based on getting a good price on it. I am only able to turn lights on and off with the Echo ecosystem at this point, and have it integrated with Belkins WeMo and Philips Hue wireless lights. I also have a WeMo switch it can control that can be wired to anything I please, but I haven't gotten around to going nuts yet. While it is not comprehensive, you can create simple recipes for actions or use existing ones as long as your devices support IFTT many of them do, including the Echo.

I use it to control the lights from the Echo, and would highly recommend checking it out. I'd prefer to build the system around open source components and have the voice recognition done on an internal server in my house with no phoning home, but I've given into the dark side. Emerson state polls for Colorado, Georgia, Arkansas and Missouri.

Reuters-Ipsos now has "high confidence" that Trump will win Vermont. Their current Electoral Vote prediction is Trump , Clinton They rate Maine as a "toss-up" and do not predict Rhode Island because of insufficient data. General commentary has recently said Trump has a chance in R.

OK but Rhode Island is the most liberal spot in the country. It's not even worth looking there. I don't think it has voted Republican since I live in Manhattan and believe a terrorist did the new work. The Rep was not my candidate, but he is now.

My mother's family built the wall here. I am no stranger to work. Centuries ago, sailors on long voyages would leave a pair of pigs on every deserted island. Or a pair of goats. Either way, on any future visit, each island would be a source of meat. These islands were home to breeds of birds with no natural predators that lived no place else on earth. The plants there, without enemies, evolved without thorns or poisons. Without predators and enemies, these islands were paradise.

The sailors, the next time they visited these islands, found the only things still there would be herds of goats or pigs. Build your bridges slowly, and don't burn them. There are only two rules for a successful education: I leave it to each of you to determine what the cumulative score is for your particular situation. The curve for skills is not, in fact, in the shape of any bell known to man; but the political demands for education are, and always will be, a perfectly symmetrical one.

If tests were used and designed properly, they would not be for "grading" at all; but for diagnosis of the particular students' skill levels in very particular subjects - not "math" but numeracy how easily a child memorizes times tables , spacial geometry fitting blocks into holes , visual pattern recognition, capacity for abstraction and so on.

Of course, selling such tests to publicly funded schools will and always has been impossible for a number of reasons. Good luck with your struggles and believe in your children. My particular good fortune was to have scarlet fever as a child so I missed the first few years of indoctrination and was able to teach myself to read and write with the help of my older sisters when they came home from middle school.

I also had the absolute loyalty and affection of our father. In the Industrial Revolution in London many new workers came to work for pennies. The Royal Mint did not want to be bothered coining small change, but it made it difficult to pay the workers.

A private mint began minting pennies and became the de facto currency to pay pennies to the workers their meager wages. I had difficulty spending Euro notes as most establishments wouldn't take or break them. Credit cards and other forms of money are more common but with a large vig. Bit Coin if it becomes more popular and stable seems like a good solution.

When I was in New Zealand I had to go through some gyrations to buy from private parties, or transfer money funds through banks to pay private parties. Each time I had to pay quite expensive transfer fees and commissions to transfer funds and to convert currencies. An international currency that can be split small, or transferred in large size and move large amounts internationally would be very beneficial. Negative rates add to the vig of holding cash.

There needs to be a better currency. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures. The connection between tides and earthquakes allows some degree of prediction of timing which was difficult before. As with markets, it's not so much whether, but when. Well a guy in NZ used to love doing this: I read a tiny bit of related science and it actually did seem to suggest more quakes due to global warming and water pressure on plates, and also big tide issues.

September 18, Leave a Comment. Today is the anniversary of Jay Cooke and Company's bankruptcy in , after failing to secure a government loan. But what seems to me most memorable is the fact that Henry Clews advised Grant NOT to make the loan to "save" Wall Street, even though it put Clews' own fortunes in jeopardy. September 16, Leave a Comment. The Autobiography of Frank Tarbeaux is well worth the time.

It was a great recommendation from the chair. And that if you wanted men to play cards after dinner serve burgundy since a man will like a warm and soothing feeling that yields to the idea of cards rather than serving champagne which gets a man worked up and wanting to stretch his legs looking for ladies after the meal.

The normal state of affairs is that 1-month expected volatility i. VIX is lower than 3-month expected volatility. In many ways this is similar to short term interest rates being lower than longer rates.

The logic is that a lot more grief random or otherwise can happen over the long term and the market prices that in. Let us suppose you believe that expected volatility is forward looking the standard belief.

Should you happen to find yourself in the less common situation where the market has priced 1-month expected volatility higher than the 3-month, the logical conclusion is that the market places a higher risk on the near term.

Since higher levels of expected volatility tend to be bearish, your subsequent conclusion is that the market will get its butt handed to it fairly soon. Hey, that means you could simply take the difference of the two expected volatilities. Sounds great, but the levels of 1-month and 3-month expected volatilities are not directly comparable.

To further complicate this, the last item the representative period is never static, but variable. However all of the above are minor items that can be dealt with. In honor of new member Richard Prout:. They are too impatient. They want to do everything all at once. When I was racing my horses, all over the world I always figured there was plenty of time.

I would be out there with them at crack of dawn watching them. And I would see to it that they lost races until their prices were right. I didn't care how long it took. But when they were right, and I knew they were right, I got busy. The cowboys and soldiers fought when Frank wasn't taking their money in cards. The soldiers nothing but city boys, and didn't know anything about firearms except what they were taught in the army.

The cowboys were all gun fighters. The cowboys filed down their triggers until they hung on a hair, just being discharged by pulling back the hammer.

The solders guns were hard on the pull, a necessary army reg to prevent the poor gentleman from shooting each other by mistake. Lots of soldiers were killed". A man or two was killed, and what could be done about it? The army could just charge it to profit and loss. And they were all wild about systems. Of course it is a mathematical fact that no system can be built to get around the zero the percentage always must be in favor of the bank.

In Monte Carlo there is one zero in roulette and here there are two zeros. Of course for a professional gambler like myself the casinos would be foolish places to spend my time. I gamble only to make money… when a hand of cowboys came in and with their gold dust, or sold their cattle, we would sit up night and day spelling each other until we had cleaned them out.

I never put a shovel to the ground during all those mining fevers, and I saw them all except the great gold rush of And I wasn't born then. September 12, Leave a Comment. This is one of many ways to get capital out of the country, Ken Rogoff highlighted others in an article awhile back. I am not in full agreement with the sanguine view on NZ, China, etc.

As an aside, my sample set is small since I am growing my network with Chinese who are in Toastmasters or employed by foreign firms, but I have rarely met a harder working group of young people.

That having been said, they are no fools and will jump ship for a small increase in salary. Loyalty means nothing if the employer is going to underpay for any length of time. The bottom line is underlying the grossly inefficient state-owned enterprise system are some stars in the making benchmarked on a world scale who can be hired for a relative pittance.

Instead, he was nearly left as the bait, stranded and surrounded by sharks. Florida man rescued after being surrounded by 10 sharks By Tony Sadiku. Bertrand Russel's sage advice is a two minute meal for a lifetime. Fortunately, by that time, the old fart didn't have that much longer to live. Why does anyone ever believe anything that a communist ever says - even the ones who later recant?

Russell ignored the central facts about Marxism for almost his entire life and believed that "communism is necessary to the world". He criticized the Soviet Union but that seems to have been primarily the result of Lenin's being uninterested in Russell's own genius they met in when the philosopher went to Moscow to see what wonders had been wrought by the "communist experiment". To the end of his life Russell believed in and praised the tyranny of experts.

That seems to be the vice of very, very smart people; they cannot understand how or why all the stupid people should be left to be free to muddle through their own individual lives. That sentiment was behind Russell's belief in his own racial superiority: When he discovered how much that opinion went against the grain of good Leftist doctrine, he did his best to pretend he hadn't meant what he wrote and that, in any case, he was only discussing the question of environmental conditioning.

As for his advice about study and school, only someone born a Lord could be so ridiculous. No one who goes through conventional education is allowed to ignore what the school teachers "wish to believe". If they persist in the delusion that they should only ask "what are the facts? Nora's favorite Physics professor at Cal dropped out of high school in the 10th grade because, as he put it, "I could either go completely crazy or finish".

Russell never once in his life faced those hurdles so, of course, he could give people the kind of advice that regularly got people shot everywhere that Marx and Engels were part of the curriculum. September 8, 2 Comments. The gist is that Cecil Rhodes started his fortune by catching a shark in Botany Bay. The spy's diary was in the shark's belly and Rhodes immediately cornered the wool futures market as England would no longer be exporting wool.

One thing led to another and Rhodes soon used his stake to buy his first diamond mines. As an aside, to take a page out of the book of all the world travelers we have, my favorite botanical garden is the Rhodes Gardens in Capetown. I like the Gardens in Hilo, Hawaii also and will buy a tree there for Artie. One thing leads to another. A favorite thing to do when trading was going very well in the old days was to take Laurel or Susan never together to the Roman pavilion and read a year old book about markets there surrounded by the smell and sight of the trees.

One apologetically notes that "The Autobiography of Frank Tarbeaux is only 86 years old. A spate of such books was planned in and published in September 8, 3 Comments.

I just posted that Gary doesn't know one book game in chess but beats me and Bill, a all the time. He's an athlete and doesn't know how to lie or cheat like the others.

He has common sense as his answer showed as both combatants are using our ammo. He doesn't have 30 secret service or handlers following him around like the others. As he said, "he'll just try to be smarter in the future". But is it smarter to know these jeopardy questions thrown at him to humiliate him. I'd put his IQ at , probably the equal of his partner who knows all the pres's of each country, and speaks Greek and Latin the way the 36 in his family had to do to get into Harvard.

Remember that Trump doesn't know what the nuclear triad is and the harridan cattle trader didn't know what the letter C in an e-mail header meant. The termagant also didn't know that Libya is having a civil war, one that she started.

Gary shouldn't know what Aleppo is as his concerns are to stay away from foreign entanglements. A colleague suggested that a good comeback would have been "Look, my intention is to not start wars, so that Americans won't have to know the name of every war ravaged hamlet on earth. September 8, 1 Comment. Arizona Frank who did much turf training and punting in Australia would berate all his jockeys when they tried to win. He insisted like Bacon that the only way for him to make a reasonable return on his stable was to make his horses run bad in the races while he prepared them to win so that he could receive proper winning odds when he bet on his horses.

How much like a market that looks bad. September 8, Leave a Comment. Here is a story I trust you will all find most useful and informative. I have not figured out how to game the Whole Foods Market system yet, but this story gives away some of the good tactics that work in most shopping cart checkout stores.

There are similar tactics in the TSA security lines. Avoid lines with kids and old people and wheelchairs. Avoid lines with ladies with lots of bling. Best is to get TSA pre or priority or first class lines. One trick is to use a different gate portal. For example, the line at the end of the terminal in Honolulu had a handful vs an half hour line in the middle.

Another trick is to go to the International Terminal and walk back to domestic. The lines at international are empty during mid day as many Intl flights come late at night.

A good thing if you have time is to come very early for the flight and check in early. Even better is to ride a private jet. Not market related, but useful if true:. The overly long article makes the case that:. It is severe overkill to be changing your oil every 3, miles. If you use Mobil 1 Extended Performance synthetic oil, you can stretch it out to 15, miles. Not included in the article, but I recall a big study by Consumer Reports that came to roughly the same conclusion. The experiment was done on NYC taxi cabs iirc.

I hate changing oil and had been thinking of how great it would be to have a Tesla for that reason. But I could live with once every 15, miles.

I think you can make an analogy here with time, risk, and energy spent on unnecessary trades that among other things, don't meet certain criteria, are part of a preset dogma that doesn't take advantage of market price movements, use of energy, capital, etc.

Here are a few of the things we noticed. The most highway patrolmen pulling over people was in Ohio. I was amazed how few signs I saw for Clinton or Trump, certainly a scarcity of them. The Trump signs were always very large and homemade. They were not the traditional poster signs given by the candidates. I find this very interesting. It probably marks the intensity of his followers. The price of gasoline varied from 3.

On average we paid 2. Lots and lots of semi-trucks and discovered they get paid about 45 cents a mile up to 60 depending on the goods they are delivering and a few other things. I have also had my fill of talk radio, but it can be helpful when getting sleepy. I found talk jocks I very much disagreed with and listened to them. Stayed awake with no problem. September 6, Leave a Comment.

Uber and Lyft have already devastated investments in taxi medalions. Their ride sharing applications will cause the car manufacturing industry to shrink from the current peak. Replacement parts may increase as the average fleet wears out rather than ages out.

Watch LA traffic to determine if the increase in ride sharing causes congestion to actually decrease. A decrease in congestion may result in a decrease in the demand for transportation infrastructure, and lower profits for specialty construction equipment and contractors. I tried to convince the local county government not to fund the extension of DC Metrorail and let software apps handle the growth in travel. Obviously, I failed to convince them. Be careful with investments in toll roads or toll road bonds short opportunities?

Income of parking company REIT's may also suffer at some point, but this may be hidden by capital gains if interest rates remain below market clearing levels. Lately, I've been studying a lot of close up magic. Knowing how magic works gives a glimpse into many market behaviors. I've realized that the market mistress is the best magician ever. That being said, Jay Sankey provides the best magic tutorials I've ever seen on Youtube and I recommend that you subscribe and see how "in your face deception" really works.

Here's a classic trick that will fool anyone, and this guy is the best. Without any equivocation, I will say that this is the most elegant card trick I've ever seen. As an aside, I'd fast forward the video first to This will be the best 18 minutes you ever spent learning something new.

There are some nice part whole fallacies in the article below. And one should comment on the one thing he knows about Pouille and Nishikori have beautiful games but their serves aren't good enough to win.

The serve is key to the game, and the court is so fast that there is little left for good all around players like the aforementioned. The key to the serve apparently is a loose arm and body and a strong wrist snap from a high toss. I like those who try to hit it exactly before it descends i. Nadal I knew would lose and he can hardly hold his serve anymore and his grotesque strokes wear the body out much faster than the flowing one so his career is over. The two handed backhand seems to be the only one that will return a fast serve effectively.

Everything depends on the serve and a good way to practice it is to serve from a sitting position. Interestingly Arizona Frank in gun fights often jumped to a sitting or side position or suggested that there was someone behind his adversary in his many gunfights. Key to Winning at the U. Open Is in the First Four Shots". September 6, 2 Comments. One has had pleasure of reading the autobiography of Arizona Frank and if he isn't the spitting reincarnation of Jeff I don't know.

He played every scam, known in those days as "gyps" in the book especially the minister horse trade, the race walking trade, the sawing off the trigger scam a good way to kill someone , three card monte, and many others. He killed many a man without compunction but gave up drinking at Almost all of the gyps are quite comparable to those we see in the market. He had the luxury like Marty Riesman of being the son of a bookie, in this case the most astute horse trader of the plains and he could tell just by sitting on a horse what ailments it had.

He liked to buy horses from those trying to cheat him, and he never let them know he knew of their fraud as that raised the price when the fraudster knew he knew. So many of those that have defrauded me have used variants of the Gyps that Arizona Frank wrote about.

Will sell at a great sacrifice the cotts of her deceased husband's sporting stable, consisting of the fast, valuable and well known road team orange boy and blossom. Orange boy has traded the mile is 22 1 blossom at and double to pole in They are six year old and perfectly sound, beautiful dark bays and black points, hands.

They drive together like one. They will not be sold for turf purposes. Will also dispose of trotting wagons, training cart, fancy blanket and harness. In fact the complete contents of a gentleman's driving stable.

The ad proved itself to be as attractive as I had intended, not only in luring prospective buyers for the horses, but also in drawing suitors for the widow lady.

September 5, 1 Comment. The one particular breed of "value" investor I hate most are those who develop vendettas against particular "overvalued" stocks of companies that are changing the world. What bugs me is their attempt at moralizing. It is a crusade to prevent investors from being ripped of by such "charlatans" as Bezos, or the Priceline founder, etc who are among the greatest geniuses of retail and business of all time, perhaps the greatest in Bezos' case.

Or it is the "Tesla bears. Apologies to those here who hate the company. It's an awesome product. If in the process of a leap in technology, better things, a few speculators get burned, so be it.

Why not let speculators fund advanced research on business concepts, technologies, etc. Overvaluation is a GOOD thing but for naked fraud, and a tremendous number of those phonies are offset by one Bezos from a "good for society" prospective. The next great "fraud" of an overvalued company with an amazing product, great customer satisfaction, etc, that the usual bears hate—having studied the "accounting metrics" till their poindexter heads are nearly exploding—I resolve to go long.

September 5, Leave a Comment. Jonathan Tepper sent around the various "Value" gurus checklist's for investment in a company. Some useful info, however, I've learned investing has a lot of jazz elements, the notes between separate the winners and losers.

As always I am open to totally off-the-wall solutions If no one answers then I'll post one tomorrow. Too late, and far too much beer, to work it out now. The code requires two file registers and twelve programming steps. Franchie New Member Sep 9, Here is a fairly standard way, pretty boring, but somewhat effective Here is some pseudo-c code: Franchie - Code looks good, no non-binary math etc, but I compiled your code and it's still pretty large and slow.

It compiles to 38 PIC instructions. Some of that is the compilers stack management, so it could probably be swapped with a bit of inline assembly etc to get it down in code size. It might still be overkill anyway, giving a good 8bit random number when I just need a couple of fairly random bits That psuedo random code doesn't look too bad; Code:.

Currently I'm leaning toward a "kludge" solution; just using a 8 byte lookup table that has 64 bits and a simple pointer index. This will repeat the same 64 "random" bits but it does have the advantage of being quick, fairly small code and fast execution time. And it has a great advantage that the bit sequence can be seen and "tuned" by eye to give the kind of psuedo random moving behaviour that will make the robot appear organic and random.

Just so I understand Well, my contribution uses 4 ram locations but does produce pretty random numbers. You xor together bits 30 and 27 and feed that into the bottom bit with the other bits shifted left one. The whole thing is about 7 instructions, call it twice and you have two random bits. I did post a Swordfish version but cant find it. GabeNC - Yes I was just thinking of running the 64 bits sequentially with a incrementing pointer.

For the second random bit needed; just use the pointer for bit1 but add 32 to it so it is significantly out of phase with bit1 but is still fast to execute. That is crude I know, if the bot was always making 1in4 decisions the patterns would be obvious, but most decisions are 1in2 with sometimes 1in4 so it would be workable. Doesn't really quite meet your requirements, but here's some code I used back in from the date in the file - the receiver software is at the bottom of the page.

Cybot IR Obstacle Detector Page The robot is controlled via a radio module, with simple commands, but also includes IR 'radar' - if the left sensor detects something then it moves right, and if the right sensor detects something it moves left. The problem was if both sensors detected something - originally I had it reverse, but that was fairly rubbish. So next I had it always turn one way, but obviously that was only right half of the time.

I came up with a very simple, completely random as far I know solution. The robot uses software PWM, using timer interrupts, so I used that to increment a counter every interrupt. The 'both sensors' triggered routine simply checks bit 0 of that counter, and turns left or right accordingly - and the counter interrupts are so much faster than real life, that it gives a nice random movement.

How about ADC with the analog input pin floating? You're not going to know what number you will be getting and it should be pretty random. How fast do you want it to be? Noggin Member Sep 11, To convert Franchie's example into asm , Code:. Rand rlf Random,w ;shift and move to W andlw 0x82 ;keep bits 7 and 1 addlw 0x7e ;xor into bit 7 addlw 0x80 ;move to carry bit rlf Random,f ;shift into seed return.

Lots of nice stuff on your cybot page too. Nigel-bananasong-noggin- Thanks but I really wanted to avoid a hardware solution. Pommie- Wow I'm amazed you got Franchie's C code minimalised down to 5 assembler instructions!!!

That makes you 7. That is some seriously nice work. Darn thought I had it done with just 7 extra instructions Ok, I think i got it.