# Sports betting

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The first day of NHL free agency kicks off with the hockey world not knowing where John Tavares will be playing in the future. Breaking down the deals and rumors on July 1," 1 July Gordie Howe, of course, is one of the greatest hockey players of all-time. No grudges toward Morouns over bridge opposition," 7 July In , four junior hockey players from the Saskatchewan town of Swift Current, about miles south of Humboldt, were killed in a bus crash.

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Behind the Scenes How we chose 'feminism' Literally How to use a word that literally drives some people nuts. Is Singular 'They' a Better Choice? These transforms have certain special geometric properties: They are thus specified by three points sharply 3-transitive. Swapping odds for and odds against swaps 0 and infinity, fixing 1, while swapping probability of success with probability of failure swaps 0 and 1, fixing.

Converting odds to probability fixes 0, sends infinity to 1, and sends 1 to. In probability theory and Bayesian statistics , odds may sometimes be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is often the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop online on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm. Similar ratios are used elsewhere in Bayesian statistics, such as the Bayes factor.

The odds are a ratio of probabilities; an odds ratio is a ratio of odds, that is, a ratio of ratios of probabilities. Odds-ratios are often used in analysis of clinical trials. While they have useful mathematical properties, they can produce counter- intuitive results: In some cases the log-odds are used, which is the logit of the probability.

Most simply, odds are frequently multiplied or divided, and log converts multiplication to addition and division to subtractions. The odds in favour of a blue marble are 2: One can equivalently say, that the odds are There are 2 out of 15 chances in favour of blue, 13 out of 15 against blue. That value may be regarded as the relative probability the event will happen, expressed as a fraction if it is less than 1 , or a multiple if it is equal to or greater than one of the likelihood that the event will not happen.

In the very first example at top, saying the odds of a Sunday are "one to six" or, less commonly, "one-sixth" means the probability of picking a Sunday randomly is one-sixth the probability of not picking a Sunday. While the mathematical probability of an event has a value in the range from zero to one, "the odds" in favor of that same event lie between zero and infinity. The odds against Sunday are 6: It is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday.

The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied. For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes. However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes.

In the modern era, most fixed odds betting takes place between a betting organisation, such as a bookmaker , and an individual, rather than between individuals. Different traditions have grown up in how to express odds to customers, older eras came with betting odds between people, today which is illegal in most countries, it was referred as "odding", an underground slang word with origins based in the Bronx. Favoured by bookmakers in the United Kingdom and Ireland , and also common in horse racing , fractional odds quote the net total that will be paid out to the bettor, should he or she win, relative to the stake.

However, not all fractional odds are traditionally read using the lowest common denominator. Fractional odds are also known as British odds, UK odds, [12] or, in that country, traditional odds.

Odds with a denominator of 1 are often presented in listings as the numerator only. A variation of fractional odds is known as Hong Kong odds. Fractional and Hong Kong odds are actually exchangeable. The only difference is that the UK odds are presented as a fractional notation e.

Both exhibit the net return. The European odds also represent the potential winnings net returns , but in addition they factor in the stake e. Favoured in continental Europe , Australia , New Zealand and Canada , decimal odds quote the ratio of the payout amount, including the original stake, to the stake itself.

This is considered to be ideal for parlay betting, because the odds to be paid out are simply the product of the odds for each outcome wagered on. Decimal odds are also favoured by betting exchanges because they are the easiest to work with for trading, as they reflect the inverse of the probability of an outcome. Decimal odds are also known as European odds , digital odds or continental odds. Moneyline odds are favoured by American bookmakers.

The figure quoted is either positive or negative. Moneyline odds are often referred to as American odds. A "moneyline" wager refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread.

In most cases, the favorite will have negative moneyline odds less payoff for a safer bet and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds more payoff for a risky bet. However, if the teams are evenly matched, both teams can have a negative line at the same time e. The book price is effectively a measure of the competitiveness of the odds prices on offer. In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances as imagined by the bookmaker that the event will or will not occur, but are the amount that the bookmaker will pay out on a winning bet, together with the required stake.

In formulating the odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' the 'book' refers to the old-fashioned ledger in which wagers were recorded, and is the derivation of the term 'bookmaker' and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:.

The true odds against winning for each of the three horses are , and respectively. This represents the odds against each, which are , and , in order.

This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he gets bets in good proportions on each of the horses. And the expected value of his profit is positive even if everybody bets on the same horse.

The art of bookmaking is in setting the odds low enough so as to have a positive expected value of profit while keeping the odds high enough to attract customers, and at the same time attracting enough bets for each outcome to reduce his risk exposure.

A study on soccer betting found that the probability for the home team to win was generally about 3. Just because there are tons of different bet types does not mean that you have to make tons of different types of bets. Stick to what you know and only branch out if you see an opportunity. The complexity of a bet has nothing to do with its profitability. You can be a successful NHL bettor without ever touching any of these other bet types.

You can also be a successful NHL bettor by betting all of these different types of bets. The point is that your success as a bettor does not rely on placing complex bets. It relies on your ability to leverage your knowledge base and find value. A money line bet is the most popular type of NHL bet. This bet type is one where you select who will win the game. If the team you selected wins the game, you win your bet! The important thing to realize about money line bets is that they do not always pay out the same amount for each team.

In fact, they often do not pay out the same amount. The bigger of a favorite an NHL team is to win a game the less money the sportsbook is going to pay you for a correct pick. The bigger of an underdog an NHL team is to win a game the more money the sportsbook is going to pay you.

These statements are general rules of thumb, though the lines will move based on how the betting public chooses to bet. The important take away is that you realize that you will get paid out according to the likelihood of the team winning. These money line bets in the NHL operate the same as they do in any of the other major sports. The puck line in the NHL is similar to a money line bet except that the team will need to win by more than 1.

With a money line bet the payout odds are the only thing that is adjusted. You win your money line bet no matter how many goals a team wins by. With puck line bets it does matter how many goals the team wins by. The team that is the favorite will need to win the game by more than 1. In contrast, the team in that game that is the underdog can lose the game by 1.

The Blue Jackets are significant favorites at on the money line. The corresponding puck line odds are as follows:. Remember, though, they have to win the game by more than 1. As there are no half goals in the NHL, this just means they have to win the game by 2 or more goals.

The reason it is expressed in half goals is to prevent betting ties. This will also show you why you would want to make one bet over the other. The Blue Jackets would only need to win the game by one goal or more for you to win your bet. When should you make this bet? You make a puck line bet when you think a team is going to win decisively.

If you win the game or lose by only one goal, you still win the bet. If you lose by two or more goals, you lose the bet. The puck line bet gives you a lot of flexibility when it comes to betting. Without this bet, you get paid nothing extra if you correctly predict that a team is going to win decisively. Over under bets in the NHL are a bet on whether or not the total number of goals scored by both teams will be greater than or less than a designated number. In other sports, that designated number changes and the payout odds stay the same.