Week 4 NFL Picks: Early expert predictions, analysis
There are no sure things in life. About half of the field had been eliminated by the end of week 5. Things were going well until week 6 when the Broncos, who were coming off a bye and a Some say the first few weeks are the easiest since all the teams are available. Pick whoever you think has the best chance to win. Once you pick a team, you can never pick them again. However, you can keep picking against a team every week as long as they play new opponents.
The Anti-Cleveland Brown strategy would have worked well in They never won a game. So, all you needed to do to survive the entire season in was pick against them every week except for the three games they played division opponents for the second time. The lines makers know more than probably anyone. Does this mean that you should just pick the team favored by the most points? One of the competitors will be a dog, who will make his weekly pick from one of the four highest favorites.
Football is a grueling, violent game and you want the players you are entrusting with your Survivor Pool life to get close to a full week of rest between games. When you are picking from the four biggest favorites, stay away from the Thursday night games. So, we'd be very careful about reading too much into "momentum" here after Seattle's Week 3 loss and Indy's Week 3 win. Recency bias is most certainly a thing, and the public appears to have quickly soured on the Broncos after their upset loss at Buffalo.
Funny enough, the Raiders actually underperformed Vegas expectations by a wider margin last week in their loss at Washington.
Consequently, there are several better upset pick candidates out there than Oakland. It's pretty much a coin-flip game, so if the line holds or only moves another point against LA, you're getting more value for the same price i. There are a couple modest underdogs in Week 4 that look like good candidates for players looking to make an upset pick or two. Based on win odds, at least one upset is expected to come out of the two games below. New York Jets vs. It's yet another fade-the-recency-bias opportunity.
That's despite this matchup being the Jaguars' second straight road game, and despite the Jets also outperforming expectations in Week 3. The bottom line is that the Jaguars are only around three-point favorites as of post time, yet the public is picking them at the same rate as they typically pick a six- or seven-point favorite. The Jets have the value. The good news for Baltimore is that Joe Flacco almost certainly can't get much worse than he was last week in London.
Survivor pools, in which you only pick one team per week, demand much different strategy than pick 'em and confidence pools. Only the 10th-most popular pick, Kansas City over the LA Chargers, had a relatively comfortable win, but KC was only picked by about 1. If you've even got one survivor entry still alive this week, consider yourself lucky.
And if you were one of the rare souls who picked the Chiefs, our sympathies are with you. That was a horrifically bad beat you just suffered, and you probably should have won your survivor pool last week. In Week 4, here are some of the factors you should be considering about the most popular survivor picks of the week so far:. There's a good reason for that, too.
Similar to the Patriots situation last week, Vegas lines currently favor Seattle by 13, and the next safest team on the Week 4 slate, New England, is only favored by nine.
So, your primary decision point with Seattle this week is about safety.