For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. None of them work. No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit.
In order to prove this point I created a program that simulated two systems, the Martingale and flat betting, and applied each by betting on the pass line in craps which has a In that case he would stop playing and leave with the money he had left. The person flat betting would play bets every time. I repeated this experiment for 1,, sessions for both systems and tabulated the results.
The graph below shows the results:. That happened for Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few losses. This is not coincidental. No matter what system is used in the long run, this ratio will always approach the house edge.
The table below shows all possible outcomes with each probability, expected bet, and return. The expected bet is the product of the total bet and the probability. Likewise, the expected return is the product of the total return and the probability. The last row shows this Martingale bettor to have had an average total bet of Dividing the average loss by the average bet yields.
We now divide 7 by the house edge on the pass line and we again get 0. This shows that the Martingale is neither better nor worse than flat betting when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet. All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way, as they should be. In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless.
Here is another experiment I conducted earlier which proves the same thing as the experiment above. This one is played against roulette testing three different systems. He was not using a betting system. Below are the results of that experiment:. In conclusion, varying of bet size depending on recent past wins or losses makes no difference in the long run outcome and is no different than always betting the same. I offered to test his system for free.
Here are the results. Despite all my warnings about betting systems, readers continually ask me to suggest one. To satisfy those who enjoy playing systems I have done a full explanation and analysis of the cancellation betting system. The Internet is full of people selling betting systems with promises of beating the casino at games of luck.
Those who sell these systems are the present day equivalent of the 19th century snake oil salesmen. Under no circumstances should you waste one penny on any gambling system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it failed and showed the same ratio of losses to money bet as flat betting. In any event, such an excuse misses the point; the computer runs billions of trials simply to prove that a system is unsound.
Gambling systems have been around for as long as gambling has. No system has ever been proven to work. From an inside source, I know that system salesmen go from selling one kind of system to another. This ensures that only the quality betting strategy submissions make their way onto our pages.
Conditions for the betting voucher: Your sports betting strategy should be detailed and creative with a minimum of words We would like to hear more than just a few lines like 'I bet if I have a good feeling about a team and they are the favourites It goes without saying that the football betting strategy must be written by yourself and must not be copied from internet forum, etc.
Mere money management strategies like staking systems, or progression systems, No Martingale, no D'Alembert etc We are looking for real inventive selection methods , betting styles , If you've been having a go at being a successful punter, then you've no doubt seen all the advertisements for betting strategies that are sure to make you a winner.
Yet which betting strategy is best of all? All of them make so many promises, so how can you tell the sure bets from the sure fails? The answer is that there is no one betting strategy that is going to guarantee you success.
A wager is just that - a wager. However, there are some strategies that can help you increase your winnings. Most of these strategies involve something that is very hard for the average punter to perform, and something which can be a challenge for even the most successful sports investor.
All strategies have rules, but many people find it hard to stick to the rules when something just "feels" right.