The table below shows the associated odds for these probabilities: Remember that bookies include an edge — called an overround — when they work out there odds so that they can guarantee profit. It is therefore important to add this margin into your odds to best reflect this overround. Simply multiply the true odds by the margin, for example, Odds x 1. The table below shows the new odds with the margin included: Now comes the fun part; deciding on where to place your bets.
You have your own odds and now need to compare these against the odds from bookmakers. This is the core of value betting which was discussed in a previous article. If you get value, then you bet — although you may wish to qualify out some bets by doing additional research to see which players are injured, motivational factors, played in Europe mid-week etc. The below is used for illustrative purposes, but gives you an indication of the type of thing you may find when comparing the odds.
In this scenario, the value is with backing the draw, backing the Aston Villa win and backing Under 2. Now go make some profit! If everything looks OK with the model, you will then need to expand it to include the same calculations for every other game in that league. At the moment, we are only calculating the odds and bets for one match.
Rather than use the same table, it makes sense to set up another 9 of these tables so that you can do one for each league game. It will be time consuming to start with, but try to get to a point where the spreadsheet can be as automated as possible — a version 2.
For instance, with my model, I input the fixtures, then the attacking and defensive metrics are calculated automatically. This is then pulled through to another sheet where the Poission Distribution formula calculates all of the odds. I then only need to manually add the odds for all of the games directly from the bookies, then the spreadsheet tells me which bets to place. The model stays the same, the only difference is the inputs. As games progress and results are known, you will need to include these in your calculations.
If your model is working on data from last season and not including data from this season, then it is likely to be out of date. In Steps 2 and 3, we used either a list of results or the league table to work out the numbers of goals and averages. You need to find a way of incorporating these most recent results in your calculations.
I simply add these to my list of results and ensure the formulas cover the new results. You may also choose to remove old results that you deem to be too long ago and now redundant. For example, if your model is based on 38 games 19 home, 19 away , then you would need to add the most recent home game whilst deleting the oldest home game to keep it at And there it is, your own predictive football model. Obviously I will give a couple of caveats at this point as no predictive model can be spot on or take into account every factor in the world.
A few points to consider are:. I hope that this has been useful and you have plenty of hours of fun with your new spreadsheet. I would never miss a PPV or anything UFC for that matter and as I started to understand the game I wanted to see what the official odds said compared to what I thought. Then I figured out how moneyline betting works you can google it or just use this spreadsheet and I would put fake bets down with friends, loser bought drinks or whatever.
It was so fun that a spreadsheet was eventually made and through some iterations it has come to this. So I thought I would distribute it to other fans. Because everyone wants to predict, but now you can put your money or fake money where your mouth is. Obviously once you download you need to unzip it and open it in Excel.
If you are unable to do this part, it will be very difficult for you to proceed any further. I will give only basic instructions for Excel. Step 2 — Enter your friends names or whatever you want to call yourselves. Enter your friends names in the unlocked cells. Click the tabs for each of the four betters I just chose 4 I might add more in the future and enter your wagers. But here is the strategy part; if you understand moneyline betting, then you know betting on the underdog will pay out much more than betting on the sure thing.
Much better deal right!! You can view the probability here and review the odds, etc all in one sheet. Once everyone has set their bets start watching the event.
I personally like to buy the PPV home and stream it through my TV which is hooked up to my media centre computer and then I can have the spreadsheet right behind. I will do a spreadsheet for the larger UFC events.
Please send comments, questions, bugs to my twitter battleshipcobra. I will try to post the sheets a week in advance if you are doing a work pool or want to see the odds, etc. Please contact me here for info.