NCAA Basketball Betting Strategy - Focus on Small Conferences
The following is a breakdown of how well teams did coming off their bye week over the last 5 years. These records are from the to regular seasons only, as they don't include playoff byes:. Now, if you know football and you really should , then you know that Andy Reid has a career record following a bye week.
Although his current team, the Kansas City Chiefs, only have a record following the bye week under his leadership, Reid is always worth a look due to his overall success. Additionally, teams like the Patriots are worthy of a look because of how good they are each year, despite an unimpressive bye week record over the last 5 seasons.
All teams with losing records should be avoided. However, the following teams might make for a great opportunity to bet against them after they come out of their bye:. For some betting experts and professional handicappers, they spend a lot of time paying attention to teams following a short week.
A short week is typically when a team plays on a Monday night, then turns around and plays the subsequent Sunday 6 days later.
The following is a breakdown of each team's record after they played on a short week from through the regular season:. Since , teams that played on Monday night and then turned around and played on the following Sunday have combined to go A further breakdown of the data above shows that 15 teams have losing records and 4 more are even. That's 19 total teams without winning records.
The following 6 teams don't have a win and would be candidates to bet against on a short week:. In addition to the above losing teams, there are 7 teams with only 1 win. That's 13 total teams with 1 win or less, or roughly 40 percent of the league. On the other side of the spectrum, there are a handful of teams that seem to thrive on a short week:. After pouring through the data, it's easy to see why this system is a popular one.
The majority of teams just don't play well on short weeks. Not only are there bye weeks for teams to rest and prepare, but there are also extended weeks. These weeks are when a team plays on a Thursday night, and then doesn't play again for at least another 10 days. The following is a breakdown of team records from through the season:. One would think that teams would have an advantage with a few extra days of rest, but that's not the case.
The teams that played on Thursday nights went on to have a record in their next game. Furthermore, the following 4 teams are winless during that span:. In addition to those 4 teams, 11 more teams have losing records, and another 3 teams have even records.
Of the teams who seem to make the most out of the extended break, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are undefeated. The following teams also appeared to have mastered the extended break:. Just like with bye weeks and short weeks, there are teams to keep an eye on and teams to bet against.
For many years now, NFL fans and pundits have belabored how west coast teams are at a disadvantage when having to travel to the Eastern Time Zone for early games. Think about it; these west coast teams have to travel a far distance, deal with jet lag, get prepared before their game, and have to play at a Sunday time that they're not accustomed too.
For further analysis, let's take a look at the true west coast teams and how they fared traveling to the Eastern Time Zone over the last 6 years:. Over the last 6 years, these teams have combined for a regular season record when traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind that the Rams went back to Los Angeles in , and these records include late games, not just the early ones.
Also, you need to factor in that the Seahawks have been one of the best teams over this span and that the Rams had a great season. To further hammer home the point of this disadvantage, the 49ers, Chargers, and Cardinals have proposed a change during the offseason to limit the number of away games played at an earlier time for west coast teams. Where there's smoke, there's fire.
And this system can really heat up if you find the right value. Until , teams would be required to take their bye week following the London game. However, in , the Colts requested to play the following week so that they could have their bye week later in the season. Now, teams have the option of a bye week after London or at a different point in the season. Of the notable information coming out of crunching the London NFL data, teams that won in London have gone on to post a record of for the remainder of the season.
Teams that lost in London would go on to post a record of throughout the remainder of the season. These wins and losses are based on through regular season. Further analysis shows that in , the winning London teams would go for the rest of the year, while the losing London teams would go This is a system that's definitely worth keeping your eye on heading into the season, especially since the NFL is hoping to one day put a team in London.
Perhaps the most popular betting system for casual to intermediate bettors is wagering on the home team. Despite its popularity, this system does have some merit. For the most part, teams protect their turf and win at home. The one thing you have to keep in mind is that the spread and moneylines help to level the betting action on home teams.
With that said, check out the following breakdown of each team's home record over the last 3 seasons:. Only 8 teams have losing records at home over the last 3 years. If you subtract the teams that are even, you still have 20 teams with winning records. Of those 20, there are a handful of teams that are virtually a lock to win at home:. If you notice, these 7 teams are annual contenders for the playoffs. In fact, three of these teams have been to the Super Bowl during this span: Carolina, New England, and Philadelphia.
Both the Patriots and the Eagles have won the Super Bowl over the last 2 years. Not only is winning at home important for the regular season, but it also provides a huge advantage during the playoffs. Live betting and half-time betting are popular types of football wagers. Assuming you also find some quality sportsbooks that commonly offer OVC lines, this would definitely be a good conference to focus on.
Of course, you don't need to have an Alma mater in a specific conference to wager on its basketball games; this is just something that helps keep your interest and makes paying attention much easier. The main two points are that you need to find lines for a conference before learning everything about it, and you need to watch as many games as you can on TV. By really concentrating on a small Division I league, you can become an expert on it and potentially even know more than the bookmakers.
If the latter happens, you'll have a very good chance to spot favorable lines and make some money! Under the Radar As many bettors know, the goal of oddsmaking is to create balanced action on both sides of a line. Picking the Right Conference If you're interested in potentially finding soft lines through less heralded conferences, the next step is to pick the right league.
Now there's no perfect formula to choosing the right conference, but here are some pointers you should keep in mind: The conference's games need to be on TV in your area - whether through a local provider or a dedicated national college basketball channel. They simply add up the two scoring averages and compare that number to the total set by the books. A more true indicator would be combining how many points a team is scoring and allowing.
For example, if a team is averaging The average combined score in all their contests to this point is You would figure out this number for the other side, add the two together and divide by 2. I ran the numbers on two teams averaging more combined points than the total.
The results were very clear, and with a 1, game sample set there is a lot of data backing up a play on the under. My next thought was to see if the time of the year mattered.
So these are all the situations where both schools are averaging more than the total. Things really start to get good in Week 4. One of the reasons the line could be set lower than the scoring averages is the weather. Everyone thinks snow and rain as the adverse conditions that hinder offenses from scoring, but in reality what I have found is the wind has the biggest effect.
There is a recency bias in betting.