A favorite drawing massive public action — The UFC does a very good job of promoting their stars and making their best fighters look very good. When those fighters fight, then, it is very common to see them go off as very heavy favorites.
A lot of UFC bettors are only casual fans, so they are going to be far more on reputation than anything else, and that means they will be heavily drawn to the favorites. When a heavy favorite is drawing a significant majority of the bets on a fight then you can be confident in most cases that the odds are higher than they otherwise should be on that fighter.
That in turn means that the underdog probably faces more attractive odds than you might otherwise expect. Though there are fewer and fewer other top level organizations out there there are still some very good fighters toiling outside of the UFC.
If you do your homework, though, you might find that the fighter is actually quite impressive and more than capable of giving his opponent a tough match on the biggest stage. An underdog ready to make their step up in class — One of the easiest ways to find an attractive underdog is to look for a guy taking a big step up in class. Sometimes, though, a guy is clearly more than ready to take that leap in class and be competitive.
If the guy has been dominating his earlier fights, has been showing rapidly improving form in each fight, or is a young fighter who is clearly developing physically then he could be better than the competition he has been facing, and attractive as a big underdog. A favorite who showed signs of declining form — MMA is obviously a brutal sport, and it can be very hard to stay sharp for a long time. Some guys can stay at the top for years, but for many guys their arc is much shorter. The reputation of a fighter will often outlast their top level performance by a fight or two.
If a favorite has not looked as sharp in recent fights — less decisive victories and struggles against styles he used to handle well, for example, then it could be a time to search for value by betting against him. The UFC will continue to promote a guy as a top level fighter as long as he is winning, so the public will usually be slow recognizing that a guy has lost a step or three. Perhaps you would give the favorite a 60 percent chance of winning, while the underdog has a 40 percent chance of pulling off the upset.
Decimal odds are mostly used in Canada, and could be considered the most easy to understand worldwide. Fractional odds have always been a favorite in the UK, they can easily be converted to decimal odds by completing the fraction and adding a unit, for the stake. Use it to know odds offered on specific fighters, events and which bookie offers the greatest value. In this case, Weidman is the favorite and Belfort is the underdog. The favorite will always illustrate negative odds and the underdog positive.
The more distant from each other the odds, the greater the favoritism for a fighter vs the opponent. Research is done through various MMA statistical sites and professional news blog.
Here is a list of valuable sites to use:. They use fightmetrics technology to handicap fighters, the official UFC statistics tool free to use. Their site has been around since the eve of the sport and ranks every single fighter that has ever fought a UFC fight.
They even have an Unknown Division section for fighters that are too unknown to categorize in the present.